Nov 26, 2023
Topline Results: Times/Siena Poll of Likely Iowa Republican Caucusgoers
View the survey’s cross-tabs and results among the national likely Republican electorate. Do you think the United States is on the right track, or is it headed in the wrong direction? [IF NEEDED:
View the survey’s cross-tabs and results among the national likely Republican electorate.
Do you think the United States is on the right track, or is it headed in the wrong direction?[IF NEEDED: Based on anything you may have seen or heard, if you had to pick, would you say right track or wrong direction?]
Date:
July 28-Aug. 1, 2023
Pop.:
G.O.P. L.V.
Right track
5%
Wrong direction
93%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused
2%
I know it's a very long way away, but thinking about the Iowa presidential caucuses [cawk-ah-sis] in 2024, do you think you're more likely to participate in the Democratic Party caucus [cawk-is] or the Republican Party caucus [cawk-is], or do you think you won't attend a party caucus [cawk-is]?
Date:
July 28-Aug. 1, 2023
Pop.:
G.O.P. L.V.
Democratic Party caucus
0%
Republican Party caucus
100%
Won’t attend a party caucus
0%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused
0%
Thinking ahead to January’s Iowa Republican Party presidential caucuses, would you say you’re almost almost certain to attend the caucus, very likely to attend the caucus, somewhat likely to attend the caucus, not very likely to attend the caucus or not at all likely to attend the caucus?
Date:
July 28-Aug. 1, 2023
Pop.:
G.O.P. L.V.
Almost certain
50%
Very likely
28%
Somewhat likely
15%
Not very likely
3%
Not at all likely
3%
[VOL] Already voted
0%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused
<1%
If the Iowa party caucuses were being held today, which candidate would you be most likely to vote for?[DO NOT READ LIST][IF RESPONDENT DOES NOT PROVIDE A NAME, READ LIST AND STOP WHEN RESPONDENT GIVES A NAME. (You do not have to read the entire list.)][IF NEEDED: If you had to decide today ...]
Date:
July 28-Aug. 1, 2023
Pop.:
G.O.P. L.V.
Donald Trump
44%
Ron DeSantis [Duh-San-Tis]
20%
Mike Pence
3%
Nikki Haley
4%
Vivek Ramaswamy [Viv-AKE Rahm-uh-SWAM-ee]
5%
Asa [AYE-suh] Hutchinson
<.5%
Larry Elder
<.5%
Tim Scott
9%
Chris Christie
<1%
Doug Burgum [BER-gum]
1%
Francis Suarez [SWAHR-ez]
0%
Will Hurd
<.5%
Perry Johnson
0%
[VOL] Someone else (specify)
<1%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused
12%
Would you say you support [candidate in previous question] strongly or not too strongly?
Date:
July 28-Aug. 1, 2023
Pop.:
G.O.P. L.V.
Strongly
77%
Not too strongly
13%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused
9%
(If voting for Donald Trump) Are you considering other candidates in the primary or are you only considering Donald Trump in the primary?
Date:
July 28-Aug. 1, 2023
Pop.:
G.O.P. L.V.
Considering other candidates
47%
Only considering Donald Trump
52%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused
<1%
(If NOT voting for Donald Trump) Are you considering supporting Donald Trump in the primary or are you not considering supporting Donald Trump in the primary?
Date:
July 28-Aug. 1, 2023
Pop.:
G.O.P. L.V.
Considering Donald Trump
28%
Not considering Donald Trump
65%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused
7%
And if the only choices were Donald Trump or Ron DeSantis, who would you be more likely to vote for?(Combined with primary vote choice)
Date:
July 28-Aug. 1, 2023
Pop.:
G.O.P. L.V.
Donald Trump
55%
Ron DeSantis
39%
[VOL] Wouldn't vote if those were the choices
3%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused
4%
(If not voting for Donald Trump or Ron DeSantis) And if the only choices were Donald Trump or Ron DeSantis, who would you be more likely to vote for?(Without combination)
Date:
July 28-Aug. 1, 2023
Pop.:
G.O.P. L.V.
Donald Trump
31%
Ron DeSantis
51%
[VOL] Wouldn't vote if those were the choices
9%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused
10%
What is the highest educational level that you have completed?[READ LIST]
Date:
July 28-Aug. 1, 2023
Pop.:
G.O.P. L.V.
Grade school
1%
High school
17%
Vocational or trade school
7%
Some college, no degree
19%
Associate’s degree
13%
Bachelor's degree
29%
Graduate or professional degree
13%
[VOL] Refused
<1%
(Recoded to age) In what year were you born? [IF NEEDED: This is just used to compute your age.]
Date:
July 28-Aug. 1, 2023
Pop.:
G.O.P. L.V.
18-29
9%
30-44
21%
45-64
36%
65+
32%
Refused
2%
Tell me whether you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable or very unfavorable opinion of Donald Trump.
Date:
July 28-Aug. 1, 2023
Pop.:
G.O.P. L.V.
Very favorable
49%
Somewhat favorable
22%
Somewhat unfavorable
11%
Very unfavorable
16%
[VOL] Have not heard of
<1%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused
1%
Tell me whether you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable or very unfavorable opinion of Ron DeSantis [Duh-SAN-Tis].
Date:
July 28-Aug. 1, 2023
Pop.:
G.O.P. L.V.
Very favorable
29%
Somewhat favorable
48%
Somewhat unfavorable
11%
Very unfavorable
7%
[VOL] Have not heard of
2%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused
3%
Tell me whether you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable or very unfavorable opinion of Mike Pence.
Date:
July 28-Aug. 1, 2023
Pop.:
G.O.P. L.V.
Very favorable
11%
Somewhat favorable
35%
Somewhat unfavorable
30%
Very unfavorable
20%
[VOL] Have not heard of
<.5%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused
3%
Tell me whether you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable or very unfavorable opinion of Tim Scott.
Date:
July 28-Aug. 1, 2023
Pop.:
G.O.P. L.V.
Very favorable
31%
Somewhat favorable
38%
Somewhat unfavorable
7%
Very unfavorable
5%
[VOL] Have not heard of
9%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused
9%
Tell me whether you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable or very unfavorable opinion of Vivek Ramaswamy [Viv-AKE Rahm-uh-SWAM-ee].
Date:
July 28-Aug. 1, 2023
Pop.:
G.O.P. L.V.
Very favorable
22%
Somewhat favorable
25%
Somewhat unfavorable
11%
Very unfavorable
6%
[VOL] Have not heard of
21%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused
15%
Tell me whether you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable or very unfavorable opinion of Chris Christie.
Date:
July 28-Aug. 1, 2023
Pop.:
G.O.P. L.V.
Very favorable
4%
Somewhat favorable
16%
Somewhat unfavorable
28%
Very unfavorable
38%
[VOL] Have not heard of
5%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused
9%
Tell me whether you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable or very unfavorable opinion of Nikki Haley.
Date:
July 28-Aug. 1, 2023
Pop.:
G.O.P. L.V.
Very favorable
14%
Somewhat favorable
43%
Somewhat unfavorable
12%
Very unfavorable
10%
[VOL] Have not heard of
10%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused
11%
Tell me whether you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable or very unfavorable opinion of Governor Kim Reynolds.
Date:
July 28-Aug. 1, 2023
Pop.:
G.O.P. L.V.
Very favorable
68%
Somewhat favorable
22%
Somewhat unfavorable
3%
Very unfavorable
3%
[VOL] Have not heard of
<1%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused
2%
Thinking about the candidates for the Republican nomination for president, please tell me if you think this word or phrase better describes Donald Trump or Ron DeSantis …
Strong leader[IF NEEDED: Do you think this word or phrase better describes Donald Trump or Ron DeSantis … FOLLOW UP: Is that a lot better or somewhat better?]
Date:
July 28-Aug. 1, 2023
Pop.:
G.O.P. L.V.
Describes Trump a lot better
44%
Describes Trump somewhat better
18%
Describes DeSantis somewhat better
16%
Describes DeSantis a lot better
15%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused
7%
Moral[IF NEEDED: Do you think this word or phrase better describes Donald Trump or Ron DeSantis … FOLLOW UP: Is that a lot better or somewhat better?]
Date:
July 28-Aug. 1, 2023
Pop.:
G.O.P. L.V.
Describes Trump a lot better
17%
Describes Trump somewhat better
12%
Describes DeSantis somewhat better
26%
Describes DeSantis a lot better
31%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused
14%
Likable[IF NEEDED: Do you think this word or phrase better describes Donald Trump or Ron DeSantis … FOLLOW UP: Is that a lot better or somewhat better?]
Date:
July 28-Aug. 1, 2023
Pop.:
G.O.P. L.V.
Describes Trump a lot better
22%
Describes Trump somewhat better
16%
Describes DeSantis somewhat better
28%
Describes DeSantis a lot better
23%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused
10%
Able to beat Joe Biden[IF NEEDED: Do you think this word or phrase better describes Donald Trump or Ron DeSantis … FOLLOW UP: Is that a lot better or somewhat better?]
Date:
July 28-Aug. 1, 2023
Pop.:
G.O.P. L.V.
Describes Trump a lot better
35%
Describes Trump somewhat better
15%
Describes DeSantis somewhat better
17%
Describes DeSantis a lot better
23%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused
11%
Gets things done[IF NEEDED: Do you think this word or phrase better describes Donald Trump or Ron DeSantis … FOLLOW UP: Is that a lot better or somewhat better?]
Date:
July 28-Aug. 1, 2023
Pop.:
G.O.P. L.V.
Describes Trump a lot better
46%
Describes Trump somewhat better
19%
Describes DeSantis somewhat better
14%
Describes DeSantis a lot better
12%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused
10%
Fun[IF NEEDED: Do you think this word or phrase better describes Donald Trump or Ron DeSantis … FOLLOW UP: Is that a lot better or somewhat better?]
Date:
July 28-Aug. 1, 2023
Pop.:
G.O.P. L.V.
Describes Trump a lot better
34%
Describes Trump somewhat better
21%
Describes DeSantis somewhat better
12%
Describes DeSantis a lot better
7%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused
26%
Do you think abortion should be always legal, mostly legal, mostly illegal or always illegal?
Date:
July 28-Aug. 1, 2023
Pop.:
G.O.P. L.V.
Always legal
6%
Mostly legal
19%
Mostly illegal
43%
Always illegal
25%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused
6%
For each of the following items, tell me whether you support or oppose the policy.
A state law banning abortions after six weeks of pregnancy[IF NEEDED: Tell me whether you support or oppose the policy. FOLLOW UP: Is that strongly or somewhat?]
Date:
July 28-Aug. 1, 2023
Pop.:
G.O.P. L.V.
Strongly support
43%
Somewhat support
16%
Somewhat oppose
15%
Strongly oppose
20%
[VOL] Have not heard of this
0%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused
5%
A federal law banning abortions after 15 weeks of pregnancy[IF NEEDED: Tell me whether you support or oppose the policy. FOLLOW UP: Is that strongly or somewhat?]
Date:
July 28-Aug. 1, 2023
Pop.:
G.O.P. L.V.
Strongly support
49%
Somewhat support
18%
Somewhat oppose
9%
Strongly oppose
20%
[VOL] Have not heard of this
<.5%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused
5%
Allowing gay and lesbian people to marry[IF NEEDED: Tell me whether you support or oppose the policy. FOLLOW UP: Is that strongly or somewhat?]
Date:
July 28-Aug. 1, 2023
Pop.:
G.O.P. L.V.
Strongly support
28%
Somewhat support
19%
Somewhat oppose
13%
Strongly oppose
31%
[VOL] Have not heard of this
0%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused
8%
Providing additional economic and military support to Ukraine[IF NEEDED: Tell me whether you support or oppose the policy. FOLLOW UP: Is that strongly or somewhat?]
Date:
July 28-Aug. 1, 2023
Pop.:
G.O.P. L.V.
Strongly support
15%
Somewhat support
21%
Somewhat oppose
20%
Strongly oppose
40%
[VOL] Have not heard of this
<.5%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused
4%
A comprehensive immigration reform bill that provides a pathway to citizenship for all undocumented immigrants currently living in the United States[IF NEEDED: Tell me whether you support or oppose the policy. FOLLOW UP: Is that strongly or somewhat?]
Date:
July 28-Aug. 1, 2023
Pop.:
G.O.P. L.V.
Strongly support
19%
Somewhat support
21%
Somewhat oppose
17%
Strongly oppose
40%
[VOL] Have not heard of this
<.5%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused
3%
What comes closer to your view about Donald Trump's actions after the 2020 election?[READ LIST]
Date:
July 28-Aug. 1, 2023
Pop.:
G.O.P. L.V.
He was just exercising his right to contest the election
76%
He went so far that he threatened American democracy
19%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused
6%
Which of these two Republicans would you be more likely to support in a Republican primary for president:[READ LIST]
Date:
July 28-Aug. 1, 2023
Pop.:
G.O.P. L.V.
A candidate who focuses on defeating radical “woke” ideology in our schools, media and culture
24%
A candidate who focuses on restoring law and order in our streets and at the border
67%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused
9%
Which of these two Republicans would you be more likely to support in a Republican primary for president:[READ LIST]
Date:
July 28-Aug. 1, 2023
Pop.:
G.O.P. L.V.
A candidate who promises to fight corporations that promote “woke” left ideology
39%
A candidate who says that the government should stay out of deciding what corporations can support
56%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused
5%
Which of these two Republicans would you be more likely to support in a Republican primary for president:[READ LIST]
Date:
July 28-Aug. 1, 2023
Pop.:
G.O.P. L.V.
A candidate who promises to protect individual freedom
56%
A candidate who promises to protect traditional values
36%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused
8%
Which of these two Republicans would you be more likely to support in a Republican primary for president:[READ LIST]
Date:
July 28-Aug. 1, 2023
Pop.:
G.O.P. L.V.
A candidate who is more conservative than most Republicans
61%
A candidate who is more moderate than most Republicans
34%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused
4%
Which of these two Republicans would you be more likely to support in a Republican primary for president:[READ LIST]
Date:
July 28-Aug. 1, 2023
Pop.:
G.O.P. L.V.
A Republican whom you agree with most on the issues
52%
A Republican who has the best chance to beat Joe Biden
44%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused
5%
Which of these two Republicans would you be more likely to support in a Republican primary for president:[READ LIST]
Date:
July 28-Aug. 1, 2023
Pop.:
G.O.P. L.V.
A candidate who promises to grow business by cutting taxes on corporations
53%
A candidate who promises to protect workers by raising tariffs on imports
39%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused
8%
Have you ever attended an Iowa party caucus?
Date:
July 28-Aug. 1, 2023
Pop.:
G.O.P. L.V.
Yes
76%
No
24%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused
<.5%
Was it a Democratic caucus or a Republican caucus, or have you attended both caucuses?
Date:
July 28-Aug. 1, 2023
Pop.:
G.O.P. L.V.
Democratic caucus
4%
Republican caucus
79%
Both caucuses
17%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused
<.5%
Now just a few questions for demographic purposes ...Are you of Hispanic origin or descent, such as Mexican, Dominican, Puerto Rican, Cuban, or some other Spanish background?
Date:
July 28-Aug. 1, 2023
Pop.:
G.O.P. L.V.
Yes
3%
No
96%
[VOL] Refused
<1%
Would you consider yourself:[IF biracial or multiracial ask: What races would that be?]
Date:
July 28-Aug. 1, 2023
Pop.:
G.O.P. L.V.
White
94%
Black or African American
<.5%
Asian or Asian American
1%
Native American
<1%
[VOL] Some other race (specify)
2%
[VOL] More than one race
0%
[VOL] Refused
2%
Do you consider yourself politically liberal, moderate or conservative?[FOLLOW UP: (If liberal or conservative) Is that very or somewhat?]
Date:
July 28-Aug. 1, 2023
Pop.:
G.O.P. L.V.
Very liberal
<.5%
Somewhat liberal
2%
Moderate
20%
Somewhat conservative
31%
Very conservative
45%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused
<1%
Which of the following general income categories is your total household income before taxes?[IF NEEDED: I just want to remind you that you are completely anonymous. We only use this information in aggregate form to ensure we have a representative group of people.]
Date:
July 28-Aug. 1, 2023
Pop.:
G.O.P. L.V.
Under $25,000
4%
At least $25,000 but under $50,000
8%
At least $50,000 but under $100,000
33%
At least $100,000 but under $200,000
33%
$200,000 or more
13%
[VOL] Refused
9%
Do you consider yourself Catholic, Protestant, Mormon, Jewish, Muslim, some other religion, or do you have no religious affiliation?
Date:
July 28-Aug. 1, 2023
Pop.:
G.O.P. L.V.
Catholic
21%
Protestant (Christian)
57%
Mormon (LDS)
2%
Jewish
<.5%
Muslim
0%
[VOL] Christian (includes Baptist, Lutheran, Episcopalian, Methodist, Adventist, Presbyterian)
8%
[VOL] Greek/Russian Orthodox
0%
Some other religion (specify)
1%
No religious affiliation
9%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused
2%
(If Protestant, Christian, Mormon, Greek/Russian Orthodox or some other religion) Do you consider yourself an evangelical or born-again Christian?(Combined with religion question)
Date:
July 28-Aug. 1, 2023
Pop.:
G.O.P. L.V.
Yes
45%
No
21%
[VOL] Refused
3%
[PREVIOUSLY] Catholic, Jewish, Muslim, no religious affiliation or refused
32%
(If Protestant, Christian, Mormon, Greek/Russian Orthodox or some other religion) Do you consider yourself an evangelical or born-again Christian?(Without combination)
Date:
July 28-Aug. 1, 2023
Pop.:
G.O.P. L.V.
Yes
65%
No
31%
[VOL] Refused
4%
The Siena College Research Institute will guarantee your anonymity, [an-a-nim-a-tee] however: If you would be open to commenting on the issues in this survey, would you like to be contacted by a reporter?
Date:
July 28-Aug. 1, 2023
Pop.:
G.O.P. L.V.
Yes
28%
No
72%
Methodology
The New York Times/Siena College poll of 432 likely Iowa Republican caucusgoers was conducted in English on cellular and landline telephones from July 28 to Aug. 1, 2023. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 5.9 percentage points.
Sample
The survey is based on a response-rate-adjusted stratified sample of non-Democratic registered voters on the L2 voter file. The sample was selected by The New York Times in multiple steps to account for differential telephone coverage and nonresponse.
First, registered Democrats were excluded from the Iowa voter file. Iowa Republican caucus rules allow registered Democrats to re-register as Republicans at a caucus site, so excluding Democrats does introduce noncoverage bias. However, less than 2 percent of the likely Democratic caucus electorate were registered Republicans in Times/Siena polling of the Iowa caucus in 2020.
Second, records were selected. To adjust for noncoverage bias, the L2 voter file was stratified by statehouse district, party, race, gender, marital status, household size, turnout history, age and home ownership. The proportion of registrants with a telephone number and the mean expected response rate, based on prior Times/Siena polls, were calculated for each stratum. The initial selection weight was equal to the reciprocal of a stratum’s mean telephone coverage and modeled response rate. For respondents with multiple telephone numbers on the L2 file, the number with the highest modeled response rate was selected.
Fielding
The sample was stratified by party, race and region and fielded by the Siena College Research Institute, with additional field work by ReconMR, the Public Opinion Research Laboratory at the University of North Florida and the Institute of Policy and Opinion Research at Roanoke College. Interviewers asked for the person named on the voter file and ended the interview if the intended respondent was not available. Overall, 73 percent of respondents were reached on a cellular telephone.
Weighting
The survey was weighted by The Times using the R survey package in multiple steps.
First, the sample was adjusted for unequal probability of selection by stratum.
Second, the sample was weighted to match voter file-based parameters for the characteristics of non-Democratic registered voters, including targets for the self-reported educational attainment based on previous Times/Siena polls.
The following targets were used to weight the sample:
• Party x primary participation (NYT classifications based on L2 voter data)
• Age (Self-reported age, or voter file age if the respondent refuses)
• Gender (L2 data)
• Race or ethnicity (L2 model)
• Education (four categories of self-reported education, weighted to match NYT-based targets derived from Times/Siena polls, census data and the L2 voter file)
• Marital status (L2 model)
• Home ownership (L2 model)
• Metropolitan area (2013 National Center for Health Statistics Urban-Rural Classification Scheme for Counties)
• State region (NYT classifications)
• Turnout history (NYT classifications based on L2 data)
• Vote method in the 2020 elections (NYT classifications based on L2 data)
• Census block group density (A.C.S. 5-Year Census Block Group data)
• Home value (L2 data)
Likely caucusgoers
The sample of registered voters was screened to the Republican caucus universe, based on a question asking whether respondents were likely to participate in the Republican caucus, the Democratic caucus or wouldn’t attend a caucus. Only respondents who said they were likelier to participate in the Republican caucus were included in the potential caucus universe. All other respondents were excluded.
Next, respondents in the Republican caucus universe received a probability of caucusing, based on the relationship between self-reported intention to vote and validated turnout in prior Times/Siena polls. This probability includes a penalty based on the tendency for survey respondents to overreport voting; in this survey, that penalty was approximately twice as large as in a typical Times/Siena survey, based on the disparity between the implied and actual level of turnout in the Times/Siena survey of the Iowa Democratic caucus in 2020, which was conducted using the same likely voter screening questions. The probability of caucusing does not include a voter file-based turnout score, as the Iowa voter file does not contain the vote history of previous Republican caucusgoers.
The final weight was equal to the registered voter weight, multiplied by the respondent’s probability of voting in the Iowa caucus.
The margin of error accounts for the survey’s design effect, a measure of the loss of statistical power due to survey design and weighting. The design effect for the full sample of non-Democratic registered voters is 1.15. The design effect for the likely Republican caucus electorate is 1.57, which includes the added variance due to incorporating the probability that a respondent will participate in the Republican caucus.
Group
Unweighted All R.V.s
Weighted All R.V.s
Weighted G.O.P. Electorate
N
Gender
Men
52%
51%
55%
555
Women
47
47
44
500
Age
18 to 29
9
14
9
92
30 to 44
21
22
21
227
45 to 64
30
32
36
326
65 and older
36
29
32
388
Education
High school
23
29
18
248
Some college
36
37
39
383
College
25
24
29
266
Post-graduate
15
9
13
164
Home Ownership (L2 Model)
Likely renter
12
13
8
128
Likely homeowner
66
62
73
706
Unknown
22
25
19
241
Marital Status (L2 Model)
Married
57
54
67
618
Nontraditional
5
7
6
59
Unknown
37
40
27
398
Party (Based on L2 Data)
Republican
61
57
86
655
Other
39
43
14
420
Race (L2 Model)
White
84
84
81
906
Nonwhite
4
4
6
38
Census Block Group Density
Less than 50 people per square mile
26
28
34
275
50 to 500
26
25
23
277
500 to 2500
24
24
25
262
2500 to 7,500
22
22
17
240
More than 7,500
2
2
1
21
State Region
Des Moines area
17
17
19
181
East
25
26
28
272
Urban East
22
22
18
234
West
36
36
35
388
Turnout History (Based on L2 Data)
Voted in last midterm and in a primary
40
36
59
434
Voted in last two midterms
48
46
35
512
Voted in last general, no midterm
4
7
3
47
Did not vote in last general or midterm
4
7
1
44
New registrant
4
4
2
38
Do you think the United States is on the right track, or is it headed in the wrong direction?[IF NEEDED: Based on anything you may have seen or heard, if you had to pick, would you say right track or wrong direction?]I know it's a very long way away, but thinking about the Iowa presidential caucuses [cawk-ah-sis] in 2024, do you think you're more likely to participate in the Democratic Party caucus [cawk-is] or the Republican Party caucus [cawk-is], or do you think you won't attend a party caucus [cawk-is]?Thinking ahead to January’s Iowa Republican Party presidential caucuses, would you say you’re almost almost certain to attend the caucus, very likely to attend the caucus, somewhat likely to attend the caucus, not very likely to attend the caucus or not at all likely to attend the caucus?If the Iowa party caucuses were being held today, which candidate would you be most likely to vote for?[DO NOT READ LIST][IF RESPONDENT DOES NOT PROVIDE A NAME, READ LIST AND STOP WHEN RESPONDENT GIVES A NAME. (You do not have to read the entire list.)][IF NEEDED: If you had to decide today ...]Would you say you support [candidate in previous question] strongly or not too strongly?Are you considering other candidates in the primary or are you only considering Donald Trump in the primary?Are you considering supporting Donald Trump in the primary or are you not considering supporting Donald Trump in the primary?And if the only choices were Donald Trump or Ron DeSantis, who would you be more likely to vote for?(Combined with primary vote choice)And if the only choices were Donald Trump or Ron DeSantis, who would you be more likely to vote for?(Without combination)What is the highest educational level that you have completed?[READ LIST]In what year were you born? [IF NEEDED: This is just used to compute your age.]Tell me whether you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable or very unfavorable opinion of Donald Trump.Tell me whether you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable or very unfavorable opinion of Ron DeSantis [Duh-SAN-Tis].Tell me whether you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable or very unfavorable opinion of Mike Pence.Tell me whether you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable or very unfavorable opinion of Tim Scott.Tell me whether you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable or very unfavorable opinion of Vivek Ramaswamy [Viv-AKE Rahm-uh-SWAM-ee].Tell me whether you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable or very unfavorable opinion of Chris Christie.Tell me whether you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable or very unfavorable opinion of Nikki Haley.Tell me whether you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable or very unfavorable opinion of Governor Kim Reynolds.Thinking about the candidates for the Republican nomination for president, please tell me if you think this word or phrase better describes Donald Trump or Ron DeSantis …Strong leader[IF NEEDED: Do you think this word or phrase better describes Donald Trump or Ron DeSantis … FOLLOW UP: Is that a lot better or somewhat better?]Moral[IF NEEDED: Do you think this word or phrase better describes Donald Trump or Ron DeSantis … FOLLOW UP: Is that a lot better or somewhat better?]Likable[IF NEEDED: Do you think this word or phrase better describes Donald Trump or Ron DeSantis … FOLLOW UP: Is that a lot better or somewhat better?]Able to beat Joe Biden[IF NEEDED: Do you think this word or phrase better describes Donald Trump or Ron DeSantis … FOLLOW UP: Is that a lot better or somewhat better?]Gets things done[IF NEEDED: Do you think this word or phrase better describes Donald Trump or Ron DeSantis … FOLLOW UP: Is that a lot better or somewhat better?]Fun[IF NEEDED: Do you think this word or phrase better describes Donald Trump or Ron DeSantis … FOLLOW UP: Is that a lot better or somewhat better?]Do you think abortion should be always legal, mostly legal, mostly illegal or always illegal?For each of the following items, tell me whether you support or oppose the policy.A state law banning abortions after six weeks of pregnancy[IF NEEDED: Tell me whether you support or oppose the policy. FOLLOW UP: Is that strongly or somewhat?]A federal law banning abortions after 15 weeks of pregnancy[IF NEEDED: Tell me whether you support or oppose the policy. FOLLOW UP: Is that strongly or somewhat?]Allowing gay and lesbian people to marry[IF NEEDED: Tell me whether you support or oppose the policy. FOLLOW UP: Is that strongly or somewhat?]Providing additional economic and military support to Ukraine[IF NEEDED: Tell me whether you support or oppose the policy. FOLLOW UP: Is that strongly or somewhat?]A comprehensive immigration reform bill that provides a pathway to citizenship for all undocumented immigrants currently living in the United States[IF NEEDED: Tell me whether you support or oppose the policy. FOLLOW UP: Is that strongly or somewhat?]What comes closer to your view about Donald Trump's actions after the 2020 election?[READ LIST]Which of these two Republicans would you be more likely to support in a Republican primary for president:[READ LIST]Which of these two Republicans would you be more likely to support in a Republican primary for president:[READ LIST]Which of these two Republicans would you be more likely to support in a Republican primary for president:[READ LIST]Which of these two Republicans would you be more likely to support in a Republican primary for president:[READ LIST]Which of these two Republicans would you be more likely to support in a Republican primary for president:[READ LIST]Which of these two Republicans would you be more likely to support in a Republican primary for president:[READ LIST]Have you ever attended an Iowa party caucus?Was it a Democratic caucus or a Republican caucus, or have you attended both caucuses?Now just a few questions for demographic purposes ...Are you of Hispanic origin or descent, such as Mexican, Dominican, Puerto Rican, Cuban, or some other Spanish background?Would you consider yourself:[IF biracial or multiracial ask: What races would that be?]Do you consider yourself politically liberal, moderate or conservative?[FOLLOW UP: (If liberal or conservative) Is that very or somewhat?]Which of the following general income categories is your total household income before taxes?[IF NEEDED: I just want to remind you that you are completely anonymous. We only use this information in aggregate form to ensure we have a representative group of people.]Do you consider yourself Catholic, Protestant, Mormon, Jewish, Muslim, some other religion, or do you have no religious affiliation?Do you consider yourself an evangelical or born-again Christian?(Combined with religion question)Do you consider yourself an evangelical or born-again Christian?(Without combination)The Siena College Research Institute will guarantee your anonymity, [an-a-nim-a-tee] however: If you would be open to commenting on the issues in this survey, would you like to be contacted by a reporter?SampleFieldingWeighting Likely caucusgoers